Projecting Sea Level Rise

In the midst of a climate crisis, GIS can be a powerful tool to predict the effect of warmer environments. Using QGIS, I extracted elevation information from a TIF file to identify the areas along the coast of Virginia that would be inundated assuming 3 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), by 2100, the global mean sea level will rise 0.57m (1.87 ft) in SSP scenarios 1-1.9, 0.92m (3.02 ft) in SSP scenarios 2-4.5, and 1.32m (4.33 ft) in SSP scenarios 5-8.5.

The area around Virginia Beach is striking because there are a number of areas that are relatively far away from the coast that are at extreme risk of being flooded because they lie along the banks of a river. It is important that policymakers recognize the fact that most of the areas to be affected by sea level rise (according to this map) will be inundated even if society were to complete a sustainable transition and experience moderate sea level rise (per SSP1). Governments in these coastal areas should focus on mitigating the harms of sea level rise, as they will inevitably be affected.

This project was completed to satisfy the requirements of an introductory GIS course.